The current oil price remains a central factor influencing the UK’s wider energy sector, and it continues to fuel debate around whether opening new North Sea fields would genuinely strengthen long-term energy security.
With global conflicts pushing up commodity prices and domestic production in decline, the question of how the UK should balance oil, gas and renewables has never been more relevant.
Oil prices and the limits of domestic production
Recent geopolitical tensions have driven Brent crude above 100 US dollars per barrel, with tanker disruptions and supply fears amplifying volatility. Developments in the Middle East also demonstrate how regional instability can quickly ripple through global energy markets, with gas prices rising by around 25% overnight. This leaves the UK exposed to price shocks regardless of domestic output.
At the same time, the North Sea windfall tax (officially the Energy Profits Levy) is adding further pressure. Industry groups argue it discourages investment, accelerates declining production and risks making the UK less competitive. With the government now reviewing the tax, its impact on future North Sea activity is becoming an increasingly important part of the wider energy debate.
Although some argue that expanding North Sea drilling could stabilise prices, multiple analyses show this is unlikely. Research from the University of Oxford indicates that even maximising North Sea extraction would save UK households only 16 to 82 pounds annually, compared with potential savings of more than 400 pounds through a full transition to clean energy.
The reason is simple. Oil and gas extracted in the UK are sold on the global market, where international supply and demand dictate prices. This means that even if the UK produced more of its own fuel, domestic bills would still rise during global spikes linked to conflicts such as those in Ukraine or the Middle East.
Energy security: does more drilling help?
Supporters of new North Sea licences argue that increasing domestic production would reduce reliance on imports and strengthen energy security. However, the North Sea basin is in long‑term decline. Carbon Brief analysis shows UK gas production is set to fall by 99 percent by 2050, even with new licences.
This raises a critical question: does opening new fields, which take 10 to 15 years to come online, meaningfully improve security? The evidence suggests the impact would be limited. Europe’s vulnerability to global supply shocks stems from its dependence on internationally traded fuels, not from a lack of domestic drilling.
The UK also exports a significant share of its oil, further weakening the argument that more drilling would directly support domestic needs.
Skills, jobs and the future workforce
One area where new developments could make a difference is skills retention. The North Sea has supported highly specialised engineering and technical roles for decades. As production declines, there is a real risk of losing a generation of expertise.
Offshore Energies UK reports that up to 7.5 billion barrels of oil and gas could still be produced from UK waters, almost double current government estimates, suggesting that the basin still holds economic value if managed strategically.
However, other analyses warn that new drilling would not deliver meaningful economic benefits without substantial state support, as the most productive years of the North Sea are behind us.
This is where transition planning becomes essential. The creation of GB Energy, was intended to support home‑grown clean energy projects and attract oil and gas workers into renewables. Yet questions remain about what the organisation has achieved so far and whether it is moving quickly enough to support workers through the transition.
Renewables: a growing but incomplete solution
Renewables are expanding rapidly and are central to the UK’s net‑zero ambitions. They also offer a more stable long‑term route to energy security by reducing exposure to global fuel markets. Wind, solar and electrification can dampen the impact of international disruptions and help cut imports more effectively than new drilling.
However, renewables alone cannot yet meet all energy needs. Oil and gas will remain part of the UK’s energy mix for years to come, particularly for industrial processes and periods of low renewable output. The challenge is managing this transition without undermining security, affordability or the workforce.
What this means for the energy sector and recruitment
For employers and candidates in engineering and clean energy, the sector is entering a period of structural change. Demand for traditional skills remains, but there is growing competition for talent with experience in carbon capture, hydrogen, offshore wind and electrification.
With more than 45 years of experience in technical recruitment, RHL Recruitment continues to support clients and candidates navigating this evolving market. Whether organisations are maintaining existing assets or investing in future‑focused technologies, securing the right expertise will be essential.
